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Improving post-disaster road network accessibility by strengthening links against failures

E. Yücel, F.S. Salman and I. Arsik

European Journal of Operational Research, 2018, vol. 269, issue 2, 406-422

Abstract: We study a network improvement problem to increase the resilience of a transportation network against disasters. This involves optimizing pre-disaster investment decisions to strengthen the links of the network structurally. The goal is to improve the expected post-disaster accessibility. We first propose a new dependency model for random link failures to predict the post-disaster status of the network. We show that the probability of any network realization can be computed using a Bayesian network representation of the dependency model. As the computational effort grows with the network size, we use our proposed dependency model in a network sampling algorithm. We then estimate an accessibility measure, namely, the expected weighted average distance between supply and demand points by checking pre-generated short and dissimilar paths in the sample. We minimize this measure and decide on the links that should be strengthened in a two-stage stochastic programming framework. As the failure probability of a strengthened link decreases, the discrete scenario probabilities depend on the first-stage decisions. To tackle this challenge, we develop an efficient tabu search algorithm. We apply our methods to a case study of Istanbul under the risk of an earthquake, both to illustrate the use of the methods and to derive insights for decision makers.

Keywords: Humanitarian logistics; Disaster risk mitigation; Network accessibility; Correlated link failures; Link strengthening; Transportation network improvement (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:269:y:2018:i:2:p:406-422