The prediction intervals of remaining useful life based on constant stress accelerated life test data

Shuidan Qin, Bing Xing Wang, Wenhui Wu and Chao Ma

European Journal of Operational Research, 2022, vol. 301, issue 2, 747-755

Abstract: In practice, the prediction of the remaining useful life (RUL) of the product is a very important issue. This paper considers the prediction intervals of the RUL of the product at the normal operating stress level based on the exponential or Weibull constant stress accelerated life test (CSALT) data. For the exponential CSALT with type II censoring, we derive the exact and approximate prediction intervals for the RUL of the product. Using the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimation and the bootstrap method, we provide the two prediction intervals for the RUL of the product based on the exponential CSALT type I censored data. Under the Weibull CSALT with type II censoring, we use the generalized inferential procedure to obtain the generalized prediction interval of the RUL of the product. We also get the bootstrap prediction interval of the RUL of the product based on the Weibull CSALT type I censored data. The performance of the proposed prediction intervals is assessed by Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation results show that the coverage probabilities of the proposed prediction intervals are very close to the nominal confidence level. Finally, two examples are used to illustrate the proposed methods.

Keywords: Reliability; Accelerated life test; Remaining useful life; Prediction interval; Maximum likelihood estimation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ejores:v:301:y:2022:i:2:p:747-755

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2021.11.026

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