Lumpy and intermittent retail demand forecasts with score-driven models

Rodrigo Sarlo, Cristiano Fernandes and Denis Borenstein

European Journal of Operational Research, 2023, vol. 307, issue 3, 1146-1160

Abstract: Irregular demand in retail is characterized by stock keeping units (SKUs) that present high intermittency, and simultaneously, high erraticness (classified as lumpy demand) or low erraticness (classified as intermittent demand), following the classification of Syntetos et al. (2005). These SKUs are basically defined by periods of zero sales interleaved with positive sales producing series with some degree of variability. Many SKUs at the store/daily level can be characterized as presenting such a type of demand. Therefore methods for adequately forecasting irregular time series are necessary for proper inventory management. This article derives models for intermittent and lumpy time series using the framework of score-driven models as developed by Creal et al. (2013) and Harvey (2013). More precisely we derive Poisson, negative binomial, hurdle Poisson, and hurdle negative binomial models and apply them to real data obtained from a large Brazilian retail chain, comparing the performance of the proposed models to adequate competing methods from the ‘slow’/intermittent demand forecasting literature. Forecasting accuracy is evaluated based on point forecasts and the entire predictive distribution. Our results show that the score-driven models perform well compared to intermittent traditional forecasting methods, providing competitive forecasting models for irregular demand in retailing.

Keywords: Forecasting; Retailing; Score-driven models; Intermittent demand; Lumpy demand; Hurdle models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221722007743
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ejores:v:307:y:2023:i:3:p:1146-1160

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2022.10.006

Access Statistics for this article

European Journal of Operational Research is currently edited by Roman Slowinski, Jesus Artalejo, Jean-Charles. Billaut, Robert Dyson and Lorenzo Peccati

More articles in European Journal of Operational Research from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().