A target-time-windows technique for project scheduling under uncertainty

Patricio Lamas, Marcos Goycoolea, Bernardo Pagnoncelli and Alexandra Newman

European Journal of Operational Research, 2024, vol. 314, issue 2, 792-806

Abstract: We address the problem of determining the start times of activities in order to maximize the expected net present value of a project given precedence constraints. We assume that each activity has a random duration and profit with a known probability distribution. Most approaches generate either: a baseline schedule that is robust to uncertainty (using proactive approaches), or a policy that reacts to the revelation of uncertainty (using reactive approaches). We propose an integrated proactive-reactive technique that generates both a baseline time window for each activity’s start time, and a policy that indicates how the schedule should be adapted for each realization of uncertainty. The time window explicitly constrains the extent to which the realized start times vary. An important feature of our approach is that, once computed, it can easily be communicated and implemented in practice. Numerical experiments show that the objective value of the solutions generated by our technique can be within 4%, on average, of the optimal value obtained with perfect information, and up to 50% better when compared to an earliest-start policy. Moreover, the variability of activities’ start times can be 10 times smaller when compared to those generated by other policies. We solve an instance with 300 scenarios and 357 activities in 30 min, illustrating the scalability of our technique on a real-world problem that produces out-of-sample feasible solutions with a desired probability.

Keywords: OR in natural resources; Project scheduling; Net present value; Stochastic programming (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221723008020
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ejores:v:314:y:2024:i:2:p:792-806

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2023.10.027

Access Statistics for this article

European Journal of Operational Research is currently edited by Roman Slowinski, Jesus Artalejo, Jean-Charles. Billaut, Robert Dyson and Lorenzo Peccati

More articles in European Journal of Operational Research from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().