The asymmetric impact of fuel and oil prices on inflation and inflation expectations in emerging economies

Magdalena Szyszko and Agata Kliber

Energy Economics, 2025, vol. 147, issue C

Abstract: This article determines the asymmetric impact of oil and fuel prices and the pressure in supply chains on inflation and consumer inflation expectations in Czechia, Hungary and Poland. The research period covers COVID-19 and the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine (2017–2022). We compare the V-3 countries, which are heavily dependent on Russian oil. We estimate the nonlinear ARDL model and multithreshold ARDL to verify whether long-run relationships exist between oil prices (fuel prices or the pressure in global supply chains) and inflation or expectations. We find asymmetric reactions. However, no comparable pattern exists across the sample countries.

Keywords: Inflation expectations; Inflation; Oil prices; Fuel prices; Supply chain pressure; Asymmetric effects (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D84 E31 E52 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:147:y:2025:i:c:s0140988325003433

DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108519

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