Uncertainty and crude oil returns
Riadh Aloui (),
Rangan Gupta () and
Stephen Miller ()
Energy Economics, 2016, vol. 55, issue C, 92-100
We use a copula approach to investigate the effect of uncertainty on crude-oil returns. Using copulas to construct multivariate distributions of time-series data permit the calculation of the dependence structure between the series independently of the marginal distributions. Further, we implement the copula estimation using a rolling window method to allow for a time-varying effect of equity and economic policy uncertainty on oil returns. The results show that higher uncertainty, as measured by equity and economic policy uncertainty indices, significantly increase crude-oil returns only during certain periods of time. That is, we find a positive dependence prior to the financial crisis and Great Recession. Interestingly, estimation of the copula over the entire sample period leads to a negative dependence between the equity and economic policy indices and the crude-oil return.
Keywords: Uncertainty; Oil shocks; Copulas (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C52 E61 Q31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (41) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
Working Paper: Uncertainty and Crude Oil Returns (2015)
Working Paper: Uncertainty and crude oil returns (2015)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:55:y:2016:i:c:p:92-100
Access Statistics for this article
Energy Economics is currently edited by R. S. J. Tol, Beng Ang, Lance Bachmeier, Perry Sadorsky, Ugur Soytas and J. P. Weyant
More articles in Energy Economics from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Haili He ().