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Economic impacts of natural gas flow disruptions between Russia and the EU

Maaike C. Bouwmeester and Jan Oosterhaven

Energy Policy, 2017, vol. 106, issue C, 288-297

Abstract: In this paper we use a non-linear programming approach to predict the wider interregional and interindustry impacts of natural gas flow disruptions. In the short run, economic actors attempt to continue their business-as-usual and follow established trade patters as closely as possible. In the model this is modelled by minimizing the information gain between the original pattern of economic transactions and the situation in which natural gas flows are disrupted. We analyze four scenarios that simulate Russian export stops of natural gas by means of a model calibrated on an international input-output table with six sectors and six regions.

Keywords: Natural gas; Supply shocks; Non-linear programming; Russia; European Union (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Working Paper: Economic impacts of natural gas flow disruptions between Russia and the EU (2016) Downloads
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DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.03.030

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