Meta-analysis of energy scenario studies: Example of electricity scenarios for Switzerland

Martin Densing, E. Panos and S. Hirschberg

Energy, 2016, vol. 109, issue C, 998-1015

Abstract: We present a meta-analysis of long-term energy-system scenario studies. The meta-analysis comprises a qualitative taxonomy of modeling approaches and a quantitative decomposition of scenario results across heterogenous studies. The analysis is exemplified by technology-detailed scenario studies of the Swiss electricity system. In the decomposition approach, we assess the variability across scenario results by a principal component analysis, which provides a low-dimensional approximation of multidimensional data. Additionally, by means of a distance measure, the extremality of a scenario result is evaluated, and a minimal set of representative scenarios is determined with respect to a considered scenario result. The proposed methods contribute to the analysis of commonality of modeling approaches and of multidimensional results across heterogenous scenario studies.

Keywords: Meta-analysis; Principal component analysis; Energy system models; Distance measure; Swiss electricity system (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:109:y:2016:i:c:p:998-1015

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.05.020

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