Stability of growth rates in energy technologies

S.S. Penner and D.F. Wiesenhahn

Energy, 1985, vol. 10, issue 8, 983-985

Abstract: We transform the logistics equation to a difference equation after determining characteristic growth rates for selected energy technologies. Using estimates of time intervals between successive generations, we then use methodologies introduced in recent studies of transitions to chaos in order to identify limits between stable and unstable growth rates. This approach leads to conclusions that are consistent with two well-known and important results: 1.(i) the first commercialization of any new energy technology is highly unstable because it requires a long period of time and represents a very large percentage increase in availability;2.(ii) nuclear reactors in the U.S. have been introduced at either too fast a total growth rate or too long a construction time between successive generations to allow stable growth.

Date: 1985
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:10:y:1985:i:8:p:983-985

DOI: 10.1016/0360-5442(85)90010-6

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