Assessing global fossil fuel availability in a scenario framework

Nico Bauer, Jérôme Hilaire, Robert J. Brecha, Jae Edmonds, Kejun Jiang, Elmar Kriegler, Hans-Holger Rogner and Fabio Sferra

Energy, 2016, vol. 111, issue C, 580-592

Abstract: This study assesses global, long-term economic availability of coal, oil and gas within the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenario framework considering alternative assumptions as to highly uncertain future developments of technology, policy and the economy. Diverse sets of trajectories are formulated varying the challenges to mitigation and adaptation of climate change. The potential CO2 emissions from fossil fuels make it a crucial element subject to deep uncertainties. The analysis is based on a well-established dataset of cost-quantity combinations that assumes favorable techno-economic developments, but ignores additional constraints on the extraction sector. This study significantly extends the analysis by specifying alternative assumptions for the fossil fuel sector consistent with the SSP scenario families and applying these filters (mark-ups and scaling factors) to the original dataset, thus resulting in alternative cumulative fossil fuel availability curves. In a Middle-of-the-Road scenario, low cost fossil fuels embody carbon consistent with a RCP6.0 emission profile, if all the CO2 were emitted freely during the 21st century. In scenarios with high challenges to mitigation, the assumed embodied carbon in low-cost fossil fuels can trigger a RCP8.5 scenario; low mitigation challenges scenarios are still consistent with a RCP4.5 scenario.

Keywords: Shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs); Fossil fuel sector; Coal; Oil; Gas; Integrated Assessment Models; Extraction cost (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q31 Q35 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:111:y:2016:i:c:p:580-592

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.05.088

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