Building scenarios for energy consumption of private households in Germany using a multi-level cross-impact balance approach

Stefan Vögele, Patrick Hansen, Witold-Roger Poganietz, Sigrid Prehofer and Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle

Energy, 2017, vol. 120, issue C, 937-946

Abstract: A major goal concerning the energy transition in Germany is the reduction of energy usage. In Germany in 2011, private households consumed 2194 PJ and have been identified as a sector with high energy reduction potential. The energy demand of this sector is dependent on many linked quantitative and qualitative factors (e.g., number of persons and demographic structure, expenditures, cost of energy-saving measures, willingness to invest, and level of coordination in international climate policy). In our study, we introduce a multilevel cross-impact approach which allows for the definition and quantification of data for scenario analysis while taking the interdependences between different factors on the global, national and sectoral levels into account. This approach makes it possible to overcome limitations that conventional energy models are usually confronted with. By applying a trend analysis in combination with information on the interdependence of relevant factors on the global and national levels, consistent sectoral views of the private household's future are created.

Keywords: Cross-impact balance; Energy demand of private households; Socio-technical scenario construction; Energy bottom-up model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544216318059
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:120:y:2017:i:c:p:937-946

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.12.001

Access Statistics for this article

Energy is currently edited by Henrik Lund and Mark J. Kaiser

More articles in Energy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().