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Comparing projections of industrial energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in long-term energy models

O.Y. Edelenbosch, K. Kermeli, W. Crijns-Graus, E. Worrell, R. Bibas, B. Fais, S. Fujimori, P. Kyle, F. Sano and D.P. van Vuuren

Energy, 2017, vol. 122, issue C, 701-710

Abstract: The industry sector is a major energy consumer and GHG emitter. Effective climate change mitigation strategies will require a significant reduction of industrial emissions. To better understand the variations in the projected industrial pathways for both baseline and mitigation scenarios, we compare key input and structure assumptions used in energy-models in relation to the modeled sectors' mitigation potential. It is shown that although all models show in the short term similar trends in a baseline scenario, where industrial energy demand increases steadily, after 2050 energy demand spans a wide range across the models (between 203 and 451 EJ/yr). In Non-OECD countries, the sectors energy intensity is projected to decline relatively rapidly but in the 2010–2050 period this is offset by economic growth.

Keywords: Industry; Model comparison; Integrated Assessment Models; Energy efficiency; Energy models; Climate change mitigation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1016/

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