Power sector development in Iran: A retrospective optimization approach
Davood Manzoor and
Energy, 2017, vol. 140, issue P1, 330-339
This paper provides an overview of the power sector development in Iran for the period 1984–2014. A retrospective optimization approach is applied to assess economic and environmental benefits that would have been achieved through appropriate long-term planning. MESSAGE, a systems engineering optimization model, is used for this analysis. Two alternative scenarios are defined to explore the impact of supply- and demand-side strategies on the power generation mix, fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. The focus on the past choice of energy scenarios provides some insights for future scenario design. The results of the cost-optimal scenarios with international fuel prices are compared with the actual historical development. The findings indicate that the demand-side strategies are key drivers in achieving a low-carbon generation mix. Least-cost scenarios would favor much more combined cycle, renewable technologies and distributed electricity generation units, and less gas turbine than the actual transition pathway. Long-term energy planning would have reduced the cumulative total power system costs by $21-$90 billion.
Keywords: Iranian power sector; Retrospective analysis; Energy system planning; Cost-optimal scenario; MESSAGE model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:140:y:2017:i:p1:p:330-339
Access Statistics for this article
Energy is currently edited by Henrik Lund and Mark J. Kaiser
More articles in Energy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dana Niculescu ().