Trends in unit energy consumption: The performance of end-use models

Clive Granger, Chung-Ming Kuan (), Mattson Matthew and Halbert White

Energy, 1989, vol. 14, issue 12, 943-960

Abstract: This paper estimates models of electricity and gas consumption for individual households using the Miracle 4 to 6 data sets collected by San Diego Gas and Electricity Company. Two types of model were constructed: the first involves typical end-use models with consumption explained by appliance ownership, household demographic characteristics, house dimensions and household income; the second class uses these variables plus consumption data for the previous year. The latter models consistently fitted better, while the end-use variables afforded little explanatory power. The results thus suggest that simple end-use models are of little value, at least for short-run forecasting. Their use for long-run forecasting has yet to be evaluated.

Date: 1989
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:14:y:1989:i:12:p:943-960

DOI: 10.1016/0360-5442(89)90049-2

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