Managing atmospheric CO2: Policy implications

L.D.Danny Harvey

Energy, 1990, vol. 15, issue 2, 91-104

Abstract: In a previous study, the impact on atmospheric CO2 concentration and globally-averaged climatic change of various CO2 emission-reduction strategies was estimated using a coupled climate-carbon cycle model. Scenarios in which fossil-fuel CO2 emissions increased by 0–1% yr−1 until 2000–2020, followed by a gradual transition to a rate of emission decrease of 1–2% yr−1, were considered and found to result in peak atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 400–500 ppmv, depending on rates of deforestation and the effect of various climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. Here, it is shown that a rate of decrease of fossil-fuel CO2 emissions of 1–2% yr−1 is consistent with reasonable assumptions concerning global population growth, feasible future per capita primary energy demand in the industrialized and developing countries, and attainable rates of installation of non-fossil fuel energy supply. It is thus concluded that stabilizing atmospheric CO2 at a concentration of 400–500 ppmv is a credible option. Attaining this target requires both greatly improved efficiency of energy use and a redirection of energy policy toward non-fossil-fuel energy sources.

Date: 1990
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:15:y:1990:i:2:p:91-104

DOI: 10.1016/0360-5442(90)90046-5

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