Cost optimal scenarios of a future highly renewable European electricity system: Exploring the influence of weather data, cost parameters and policy constraints

D.P. Schlachtberger, T. Brown, M. Schäfer, S. Schramm and M. Greiner

Energy, 2018, vol. 163, issue C, 100-114

Abstract: Cost optimal scenarios derived from models of a highly renewable electricity system depend on the specific input data, cost assumptions and system constraints. Here this influence is studied using a techno-economic optimisation model for a networked system of 30 European countries, taking into account the capacity investment and operation of wind, solar, hydroelectricity, natural gas power generation, transmission, and different storage options. A considerable robustness of total system costs to the input weather data and to moderate changes in the cost assumptions is observed. Flat directions in the optimisation landscape around cost-optimal configurations often allow system planners to choose between different technology options without a significant increase in total costs, for instance by replacing onshore with offshore wind power capacity in case of public acceptance issues. Exploring a range of carbon dioxide emission limits shows that for scenarios with moderate transmission expansion, a reduction of around 57% compared to 1990 levels is already cost optimal. For stricter carbon dioxide limits, power generated from gas turbines is at first replaced by generation from increasing renewable capacities. Non-hydro storage capacities are only built for low-emission scenarios, in order to provide the necessary flexibility to meet peaks in the residual load.

Keywords: Energy system design; Large-scale integration of renewable power generation; Power transmission; CO2 emission reduction targets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (53)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:163:y:2018:i:c:p:100-114

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.08.070

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