Nonlinear dynamics of the per capita energy consumption

W. Seifritz and J. Hodgkin

Energy, 1991, vol. 16, issue 3, 615-620

Abstract: Empirical data of world-wide per capita energy consumption have been analysed for the past 150 years. Close coupling has been identified with the corresponding two economic long-wave Kondratieff cycles. There is strong evidence that the per capita consumption of energy has increased in a non-linear, step-wise manner, following a logistic function. Extrapolating this behaviour into the future, a further factor of about 2.5 in the world-wide per capita energy consumption is forecast for the middle of the next century. However, a reduction could also occur with the consequence that world civilization will degrade substantially. This dilemma is discussed on the basis of the nonlinear character of the logistic functions.

Date: 1991
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:16:y:1991:i:3:p:615-620

DOI: 10.1016/0360-5442(91)90032-H

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