EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

The impact of demand uncertainties and China-US natural gas tariff on global gas trade

Yingjian Guo and Adam Hawkes

Energy, 2019, vol. 175, issue C, 205-217

Abstract: The uncertainties in gas demand levels and geopolitical issues may lead to significant changes in global gas trade. This paper uses an agent-based model to simulate the alternative market futures under two demand trajectories: a baseline following current policy pledges until 2060 and another where demand shifts to a lower level in 2030. Endogenously generated capacity investments are driven by long-term bilateral contracts between importers and exporters, where investors are assumed to evaluate the potential risks of demand changes while making their decisions. The results suggest that, when the demand decreases in 2030, the Middle East takes the dominant position in Eastern Asia, whereas this role is occupied by North America in the current policy scenario. In addition, the impacts of a 25% tariff by China on U.S. natural gas are studied for both scenarios. The revenue of North American gas trade is only marginally affected by this tariff. Under the normal demand trajectory, the tariff influences the Chinese market more notably in the longer term when global supply is tightened by decommissioning. In the case of lower global gas demand, the market share of Russia in Western Europe could be threatened by increasing North American export there.

Keywords: Global gas trade; Gas demand uncertainty; China-US LNG tariff; Energy systems modelling; Stochastic analysis; Contract-driven investment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544219304517
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:175:y:2019:i:c:p:205-217

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2019.03.047

Access Statistics for this article

Energy is currently edited by Henrik Lund and Mark J. Kaiser

More articles in Energy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Haili He ().

 
Page updated 2020-05-02
Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:175:y:2019:i:c:p:205-217