Generating high-resolution multi-energy load profiles for remote areas with an open-source stochastic model

Francesco Lombardi, Sergio Balderrama, Sylvain Quoilin and Emanuela Colombo

Energy, 2019, vol. 177, issue C, 433-444

Abstract: Energy access projects in remote off-grid areas would benefit from the adoption of a multi-energy system perspective, addressing all energy needs – not only lighting and power appliances, but also water-heating and cooking – by means of a mix of energy vectors. However, multi-energy analyses in remote areas are hindered by a lack of models allowing for the generation of multi-energy load profiles based on interview-based information characterised by high uncertainty. This study proposes a novel open-source bottom-up stochastic model specifically conceived for the generation of multi-energy loads for systems located in remote areas. The model is tested and validated against data obtained from a real system, showing a very good approximation of measured profiles, with percentage errors consistently below 2% for all the selected indicators, and an improved accuracy compared to existing approaches. In particular, some innovative features – such as the possibility to define and modulate throughout the day appliances’ duty cycles – seem to be determinant in marking a difference with previous approaches. This might arguably be even more beneficial for case studies characterised by a larger penetration of appliances that are subject to complex and unpredictable duty cycle behaviour.

Keywords: Load profile; Energy demand; Multi-energy system; Off-grid; Rural areas (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:177:y:2019:i:c:p:433-444

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2019.04.097

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