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Analysis of the lithuanian final energy consumption with respect to economic changes

Carsten Oder, Hans-Dietrich Haasis and Otto Rentz

Energy, 1992, vol. 17, issue 12, 1179-1188

Abstract: The development of energy consumption in Lithuania is investigated on the basis of realistic economic scenarios. The aim is to provide reasonable projections of final energy consumption for selected demand sectors. The main parameters determining consumption are the gross national product (GNP) and the real price for energy. The influences of price level and economic activity during preceding periods are evaluated by using multiple regressions with a quasi-dynamic model. Insofar as these mechanisms cannot be detected for Lithuania, experiences with other former centrally-planned economies, which have already turned into kinds of market economies, are applied to make realistic projections for the transitory period. The underlying scenarios for the GNP and price developments are taken from official Lithuanian projections, but they have been adjusted to allow for the most recent development. The results of the quasi-dynamic model are compared with the official final energy-demand projections to provide policy advice for a proper restructuring of the energy system.

Date: 1992
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Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:17:y:1992:i:12:p:1179-1188