A method for natural gas forecasting and preliminary allocation based on unique standard natural gas consumption profiles

J. Ravnik and M. Hriberšek

Energy, 2019, vol. 180, issue C, 149-162

Abstract: The paper reports on the development of unique standard gas consumption profiles for the end gas consumers and the preparation of a method for the implementation of the developed profiles for forecasting and preliminary gas allocation. Four years of gas consumption and temperature measurements were used to develop eight types of consumption profiles for 17 gas consumer groups, which were grouped according to their professional activity. As an alternative to the exponential, Gompertz or logistic model functions, frequently used in gas consumption model developments, the sigmoid model function is implemented and model constants for the eight types of profiles are developed based on the knowledge of the temperature independent portion of the gas consumption and separate treatment of workdays/weekends. Based on these profiles, a method was developed for the preliminary allocation of the gas consumption. The developed profiles and the gas consumption allocation method were validated on the available set of gas consumption data for the Slovenian gas market, proving the sigmoid model function based gas consumption allocation as an accurate and viable means of gas consumption forecasting.

Keywords: Natural gas consumption; Unique standard profile; Preliminary allocation; Households; Sigmoid function (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544219309612
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:180:y:2019:i:c:p:149-162

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2019.05.084

Access Statistics for this article

Energy is currently edited by Henrik Lund and Mark J. Kaiser

More articles in Energy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().