Uncertainty analysis of heat-exchanger thermal designs using the Monte Carlo simulation technique

M.Affan Badar, Syed M. Zubair and Anwar K. Sheikh

Energy, 1993, vol. 18, issue 8, 859-866

Abstract: The Monte Carlo simulation technique for determining uncertainties of the thermal parameters needed in designing heat exchangers is discussed. Parameters such as the outside diameter Do, thickness t and thermal conductivity k are assumed to have Gaussian distributions, while the heat-transfer coefficients hi, and ho are considered to follow normal, log-normal and Weibull forms of distribution. An illustrative example is presented. The overall heat-transfer coefficient U obtained from the simulation is found to have a distribution that is well approximated by the Weibull model. Using the Weibull distribution of U, the additional percentage area is calculated for 80 and 99% confidence levels (CLs). The proposed approach of design analysis incorporates realistic risks associated with uncertainties of the parameters.

Date: 1993
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:18:y:1993:i:8:p:859-866

DOI: 10.1016/0360-5442(93)90063-J

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