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Using a temporal input-output approach to analyze the ripple effect of China’s energy consumption

Cheng Yongwei, Mu Dong, Ren Huanyu, Fan Tijun and Du Jianbang

Energy, 2020, vol. 211, issue C

Abstract: Forecasting energy consumption of economic activities is important for China to cope with climate change and maintain sustainable economic growth. This study proposes a novel temporal input-output approach that not only forecast the energy consumption of various economic sectors, but also reflects the spread process of inter-sectoral ripple effect of energy consumption from a temporal perspective. Using China’s 2015 annual input-output table and data of nearly 3500 listed companies in China’s A-share market, we plot the ripple time curves depicting actual energy consumption resulting from China’s three main final demands, i.e., Investment, Export, and Consumption. The results show that the manufacturing sector, construction sector and electric power/thermal sector have critical impact on the China’s energy consumption. Among all final demands, the Export demand and Investment demand are the main factors causing energy consumption. This study improves the input-output approach from the perspective of time in order to make timely and effective forecast for the China’s energy consumption based on real-time data about final demands.

Keywords: China’s economy; Energy consumption forecasting; Temporal input-output approach; Ripple effect; Time curve (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:211:y:2020:i:c:s0360544220317497

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.118641

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