Mid-term prediction of electrical energy consumption for crude oil pipelines using a hybrid algorithm of support vector machine and genetic algorithm

Lei Xu, Lei Hou, Zhenyu Zhu, Yu Li, Jiaquan Liu, Ting Lei and Xingguang Wu

Energy, 2021, vol. 222, issue C

Abstract: The mid-term electrical energy consumption forecasting for crude oil pipelines is helpful for making important decisions, such as energy consumption target setting, unit commitment, batch scheduling, and equipment monitoring with degraded performance. The electricity energy consumption forecasting during operation is complicated. Therefore, A hybrid prediction method combining genetic algorithm and support vector machine is proposed, which includes four parts: data preprocessing part, optimization part, forecasting part, and evaluation part. The stratified sampling method is adopted to divide the training set and the test set to avoid large deviation caused by sampling stochasticity of small samples. According to the nonlinear relationship between input variable and output variable mapped by SVM technology, genetic algorithm was proposed to optimize the hyperparameters of SVM. For the operation data of three crude oil pipelines in China, the different proportions of data sets are compared and analyzed, the ratio of training set to test set for Pipeline 1, Pipeline 2, and Pipeline 3 is 6:4, 7:3, 8:2, respectively. Comparing the evaluation indicators of GA-SVM with that of five state-of-the-art prediction methods, GA-SVM hybrid model has the best effect in improving the predictive accuracy, and the forecast results are in the best agreement with the actual data.

Keywords: Crude oil pipeline operation; Electrical energy consumption prediction; Stratified sampling; Support vector machine; Genetic algorithm (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (18)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:222:y:2021:i:c:s0360544221002048

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2021.119955

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