 Natural gas consumption and climate: a comprehensive set of predictive state-level models for the United StatesDavid J. Sailor, Jesse N. Rosen and J.Ricardo Muñoz Energy, 1998, vol. 23, issue 2, 91-103 Abstract: Separate models correlating natural gas (NG) consumption to climate have been developed for the residential and commercial sectors of the 50 U.S. states. The models relate a population-weighted average temperature to state per capita NG consumption on a monthly basis. The majority of the models have Pearson correlation coefficients greater than 0.90 supporting the use of temperature as the sole independent parameter. The sensitivities of the models to a 1°C increase in temperature, are compared for each state and the monthly sensitivity to climate integrated over the entire U.S. is investigated for a range of temperature perturbations. The predicted impact of a 1°C increase in mean monthly temperature on U.S. consumption is an 8.1% decrease in the residential sector and a 5.9% decrease in the commercial sector. In terms of the net consumption normalized over the study period (1984–1993) this corresponds to a 111.8TWh decrease in the residential sector and a 47.0TWh decrease in the commercial sector. The largest change for a single month occurs in January when consumption would decrease 19.7TWh in the residential sector and 7.4TWh in the commercial sector. Date: 1998 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:23:y:1998:i:2:p:91-103 DOI: 10.1016/S0360-5442(97)00073-X Access Statistics for this article Energy is currently edited by Henrik Lund and Mark J. Kaiser More articles in Energy from Elsevier |
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