Many-objective optimization of energy conservation and emission reduction under uncertainty: A case study in China's cement industry

Christian Doh Dinga and Zongguo Wen

Energy, 2022, vol. 253, issue C

Abstract: The difficulty of Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction (ECER) management has increased due to the large number of conflicting objectives and multiple uncertainty factors. Most studies only optimize few objectives, and neglect the effect of these uncertainties. This study optimizes 10-ECER objectives in China's cement industry. First, we simulate uncertainties through random sampling, and adopt the Mean-effective mechanism NSGA-III to calculate optimal solutions under uncertainty. Finally, we minimize the occurrence of uncertainties through Morris test, and apply VIKOR to generate optimal ECER management schemes. Results show that: (1) Uncertainties significantly affect ECER management. For example, the deterministic NOx reduction potential is 774 g/t, which is 12% higher than under uncertainty (699 g/t). Therefore, ignoring uncertainties result in setting too strict targets that do not match practical reality; (2) Clinker/Cement ratio and abatement efficiency of end-of-Pipe technologies are critical parameters which cause most uncertainties. Hence, policy makers can significantly minimize the occurrence of uncertainties by strictly controlling their fluctuation; (3) ECER schemes encourage the promotion of 1-renewable energy utilization approach, 3-supplementary cementitious materials, an incentivized application of 7-advanced technologies and equipment upgrading. In sum, the proposed methodology can minimize the occurrence of uncertainties in ECER management, and support decision-making under many conflicting objectives.

Keywords: Bottom-up modelling; Energy conservation; Emission reduction; Environmental management; Uncertainty analysis; Optimization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:253:y:2022:i:c:s0360544222010714

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2022.124168

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