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How can structural change contribute to concurrent sustainability policy targets on GDP, emissions, energy, and employment in China?

Shuo Zhang, Yadong Yu, Ali Kharrazi, Hongtao Ren and Tieju Ma

Energy, 2022, vol. 256, issue C

Abstract: For China to achieve carbon emissions peak and neutrality, the structural adjustment of both its economy and energy system is essential. In this study, a multi-objective optimization model based on the Input-Output approach is built to coordinate diverse policy targets vis-à-vis GDP growth, carbon emissions reduction, employment, and energy-saving of China from 2020 to 2030. The optimal structural adjustment pathways of China's economy, reflecting a high-resolution of available electricity generation technologies, under four policy preferences, are planned and the co-benefits and trade-offs among multiple policy targets are detected. Our results reveal that while the energy-saving preference is more likely to hinder GDP growth (by −190 trillion yuan) and employment levels (by −60 million jobs), however, this preference is conducive to carbon emissions reduction (by −2.6 billion tons). Furthermore, our findings reveal that although the low-carbon preference does not undermine employment levels, however, it will restrain GDP growth (by 109 trillion yuan). The integrated management of multiple policy targets would require the country's industrial structure to increase the proportion of low-carbon to total electricity generation to account for 71% by 2030 and the proportion of the services sector to the whole economy to account between 42% and 51% by 2030.

Keywords: Carbon emissions; Employment; Trade-offs; Multi-objective optimization; Input-output analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1016/

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