A novel structure adaptive discrete grey Bernoulli prediction model and its applications in energy consumption and production

Yong Wang, Rui Yang, Juan Zhang, Lang Sun, Wenlian Xiao and Akash Saxena

Energy, 2024, vol. 291, issue C

Abstract: It is well known that energy forecasts play an important role in guiding energy policy, economic development and technological progress. Therefore, based on the purpose of energy consumption and production forecasting, this paper proposes a novel structure adaptive discrete grey Bernoulli model, which is innovative in terms of both accumulated generating operator and model structure. In terms of accumulated generating operator, a new fractional order accumulated generating operator is proposed in this paper. The new accumulated generating operator has a different information priority by adjusting the values of the parameters. In terms of model structure, a novel discrete grey Bernoulli model is proposed in this paper. The novel model is well adapted to time series data containing nonlinear information, and can well mine and utilize the information contained in the original data. In addition, the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm was chosen to optimize the model parameters based on algorithm comparison experiments. This enables the model to flexibly adapt to a variety of complex data and has the ability of structure adaptive. Moreover, this paper conducts comparative experiments between the novel model and eight other forecasting algorithms for time series data. The numerical results show that the novel model has better forecasting performance for the data of China’s total energy consumption, China’s total electricity generation and China’s total domestic electricity consumption. In addition, for the model reliability problem caused by the optimization algorithm, the stability and accuracy of the model are verified by Monte Carlo simulation and probability density visualization analysis. Finally, the proposed model predicts the future development trend of energy consumption and production in China.

Keywords: Grey model; Fractional order accumulation operator; Monte Carlo simulation; Particle swarm optimization; Energy prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544224001397
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:291:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224001397

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.130368

Access Statistics for this article

Energy is currently edited by Henrik Lund and Mark J. Kaiser

More articles in Energy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().