The heterogeneous effects of transportation infrastructure on trade-embodied CO2 transfer: A multi-scale perspective

Cheng Lu and Qiang Du

Energy, 2024, vol. 302, issue C

Abstract: This paper investigates the heterogeneous impact of transportation infrastructure on trade-embodied CO2 emission (TEC) transfer. First, a multi-scale input-output (MSIO) model is developed to analyze the TEC from 31 Chinese provinces to 64 Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries. Then, the panel quantile regression and Markov Chain Monte Carlo optimization methods are applied to estimate the impact of transportation infrastructure on TEC, taking into account the provincial heterogeneity. The main results are as follows: (1) The TEC of China's exports to BRI countries amounted to 311.01 Mt CO2 annually from 2012 to 2016, with significant variations in TEC characteristics among different Chinese provinces. (2) China's transportation infrastructure network density (TID) predominantly exhibited a negative impact on exported TEC across various quantiles. Specifically, a 1% increase in TID was associated with a decrease in TEC ranging from approximately 0.25% to 3.99%. (3) As quantiles increased, the impact of transportation-converted turnover in China on TEC also rose, with a range of 0.66% to 0.94%. This study identifies the crucial regions and sectors of TEC from a ‘provincial-national-global’ multi-scale perspective, and implies that strengthening the construction of transportation infrastructure may improve the marginal effect of industrial structure transformation and environmental improvement brought about by trade activity.

Keywords: Transportation infrastructure; Trade-embodied CO2; Belt and road initiative; Multi-scale input-output; Panel quantile regression; Heterogeneous effects (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:302:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224015585

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.131785

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