Forecasting of biogas potential using artificial neural networks and time series models for Türkiye to 2035

Halil Şenol, Emre Çolak and Volkan Oda

Energy, 2024, vol. 302, issue C

Abstract: Being among the developing countries, Türkiye's electrical needs are increasing day by day with its increase in population. To address this need, consideration should be given to bovine manure-based biogas potential (BMBP), which is a renewable energy source, particularly as one of Türkiye's national livelihoods – which is dependent on foreign countries for energy – is livestock farming. Although there are significant numbers of bovine stock distributed across the various geographical regions of Türkiye, there are no studies to date that have attempted to determine the BMBPs of these regions, either for past or future years. The aim of the current study was to calculate for the first time the BMBP for seven different regions of Türkiye between 2004 and 2021 and to estimate these for 2022 to 2035 using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), autoregressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA) from time series, and linear regression models. Türkiye's BMBP for 2021 has been calculated to be 14,262 GWh/year, which corresponds to approximately 3.2 % of the total renewable energy used by Türkiye in 2021. For 2035, Türkiye's BMBP has been forecast to be 19,905 GWh/year according to ANN's Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, 16,862 GWh/year according to the Bayesian Regularization algorithm, 19,329 GWh/year according to ARIMA, and 19,897 GWh/year according to the Linear Regression method. All the models proposed for predicting the BMBPs for different geographical regions in Türkiye for the coming years of interest were found to perform extremely well (MSE = 205–7917 and MAPE = 0.919–4.430). When evaluated on a regional basis, the highest BMBP for 2021 was forecasted to be 3163 GWh/year for the Central Anatolia region, which corresponded to approximately 7 % of its total electricity consumption. Considering these values, it is clear that BMBP can provide significant savings with regard to the volume of electrical energy Türkiye will require in the coming years.

Keywords: Biomethane; Animal manure; Renewable energy; Livestock waste; Anaerobic digestion (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:302:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224017225

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.131949

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