Multi-objective optimization of non-fossil energy structure in China towards the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals

Mengjia Li, Fangfang Li, Jun Qiu, Han Zhou, Hongru Wang, Houliang Lu, Nan Zhang and Zhengyu Song

Energy, 2024, vol. 312, issue C

Abstract: Numerous nations and regions are earnestly dedicated to propelling energy transition. China accounts for 31.78 % of the total global carbon emissions, and China's energy structure holds paramount significance in the broader context of global initiatives. China has officially proposed to achieve the target of carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060, imposing substantial pressure on the transformation of the energy structure. In this study, we propose a multi-objective optimization model for the non-fossil energy structure, encompassing three primary optimization objectives: maximizing power generation, minimizing economic costs, and reducing CO₂ emissions. The optimization involves determining the proportion of seven key non-fossil energy sources—hydropower, onshore wind, offshore wind, photovoltaic (PV), bioenergy, geothermal, and nuclear power—while adhering to constraints related to power demand, nuclear safety, and other factors. The analysis explores the installed capacity, power generation, power generation costs, and CO₂ emission reductions of non-fossil energy under distinct scenarios in 2025, 2030, and 2060. The findings reveal that by 2030, the optimal share of power generation should be sequenced as onshore wind, hydropower, nuclear power, offshore wind, PV, bioenergy, and geothermal. Subsequently, by 2060, the top three developed power should be onshore wind, nuclear power, and hydropower.

Keywords: Non-fossil energy structure; Multi-objective optimization; Carbon emission; Shared socioeconomic pathways; Installed capacity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544224034212
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:312:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224034212

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.133643

Access Statistics for this article

Energy is currently edited by Henrik Lund and Mark J. Kaiser

More articles in Energy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().