Socioeconomic impact of Brazilian electricity market liberalization: Forecasting and optimized tariff analysis

Patrícia Ferreira Silva, Vinicius Braga Ferreira da Costa, Bruno Henriques Dias, Tiago André Soares, Benedito Donizeti Bonatto and Pedro Paulo Balestrassi

Energy, 2024, vol. 313, issue C

Abstract: –This article integrates forecasting methods with an optimized tariff model to assess the effectiveness of the schedule proposed by the Brazilian Association of Energy Traders, as outlined in the technical note NT n°10/2022-SRM/ANEEL. This note discusses the regulatory measures to fully open the free energy market to all captive consumers by 2026. Several models, including Winters, SARIMA, ARIMA, and trend analysis were compared to determine the most suitable method for each input variable in the TAROT model, aiming to enhance forecasting accuracy. The results show that the new schedule proposed in the technical note successfully maintains the balance between the economic surplus of concessionaires and the socioeconomic welfare. Despite both approaches declining during the migration period of low-voltage consumers, their surpluses remain positive. However, there are negative effects on tariffs, impacting all consumer groups remaining in the regulated market, both high-voltage and low-voltage consumers. A key conclusion is that further regulatory changes are essential to mitigate additional increases in energy tariffs, aligning the proposed schedule with the reduction of legacy contracts.

Keywords: Unregulated energy market; Free contracting environment; Optimized tariff; Energy sustainability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544224037708
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:313:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224037708

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.133992

Access Statistics for this article

Energy is currently edited by Henrik Lund and Mark J. Kaiser

More articles in Energy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().