Measuring the natural gas price features of the Asia-Pacific market from a complex network perspective

Jian Su, Wenya Wang, Yang Bai and Peng Zhou

Energy, 2025, vol. 314, issue C

Abstract: High fluctuations in natural gas prices are not conducive to the stability of natural gas trade. This paper assesses the characteristics and laws of natural gas price fluctuations, turning points, and scope of influence in the Asia-Pacific natural gas markets. Japan/Korea Maker natural gas spot price time series are converted into a visibility graph network of natural gas price and a visibility graph network of natural gas price fluctuations. The results show that time series changes in the natural gas prices of the Asia-Pacific market are not random, but feature long-range persistence, where it takes around 314 days to erase the historical memory of the natural gas price time series. Significant events may exert long-term or intermittent effects on future time series. What often affects future prices is a “time series over a period”, rather than a single node. In addition, several crucial fluctuation modes representing the precursors of price fluctuation changes are identified. These findings help develop better forecasts for the Asia-Pacific natural gas market price, which are valuable for both policymakers and investors.

Keywords: Natural gas price; Visibility graph network; Natural gas price fluctuations; Price feature (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:314:y:2025:i:c:s0360544224039112

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.134133

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