Powering the planet: A 30-year retrospective and prospect on global electricity generation

Chong Xu and Yuchen Gao

Energy, 2025, vol. 316, issue C

Abstract: Electricity generation (EG) is widely regarded as an essential indicator for mitigating climate change and achieving energy transition. Although existing literature focused on EG from various aspects, the retrospective and future performance of EG have not been discussed systematically from a global perspective. Here, this study presented an in-depth investigation on multisource characteristics with a focus on inequality and projection of EG covering 77 countries over 1991–2022 using decomposition method of Gini coefficient and Theil index, generalized Divisia index model, panel vector autoregressive model, ensembled time-forecasting models, respectively. Key findings indicated that, first, inequality of global EG has decreased with heterogeneity between regions and countries. Regional rank and per capita GDP were the main factors of increasing inequality, while EG intensity primarily reduced inequality. In fuel decomposition, nuclear & other reduced inequality, whereas fossil energy increased inequality across regions. Second, GDP was the primary driving force of global EG, followed by per capita EG. Third, there is an early mutual response relationship between GDP and EG. Forth, the trend of sustained growth in EG was expected to continue by 2030 in most countries. Consequently, collaborative efforts and energy transition are required to achieve sustainable and affordable development of global EG.

Keywords: Global electricity generation; Inequality; Driving force; Fuel; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:316:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225000957

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.134453

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