Forecasting the electric power load based on a novel prediction model coupled with accumulative time-delay effects and periodic fluctuation characteristics

Junjie Wang, Wenyu Huang, Yuanping Ding, Yaoguo Dang and Li Ye

Energy, 2025, vol. 317, issue C

Abstract: The electric power load forecasting has important theoretical and practical significances for balancing electric power supply. To produce the precise values of the future electric power load, a new discrete grey multivariable prediction model with accumulative time-delay effects and periodic fluctuation characteristics is proposed. In the new model, the accumulative time-delay effects and periodic fluctuation are analyzed and represented by the algebraic expressions. The discrete expression of the new model, containing both the accumulative time-delay effects and periodic fluctuation characteristics, is put forward. A theorem is developed to give the matrix representations of the unknown parameters through the least squares estimation. Then, the vector autoregression model is carried out to identify the accumulative time-delay parameters. A nonlinear programming problem is developed to optimize the parameters by using the whale optimization algorithm. Finally, the model is implemented to predict the monthly electricity consumptions in Zhejiang Province to validate its advantages. Results show the new model has better performances than benchmark models. The model decreases the MAPE value by 121.05 %, 32.58 %, 238.35 % and 189.47 % than similar grey models and reduces the MAPE value by 20.05 %, 17.54 %, 285.21 % and 275.69 % than the statistics method models and the machine leaning models.

Keywords: Prediction; Time-delay effects; Periodic fluctuation; Electricity power load; Whale optimization algorithm (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544225001604
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:317:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225001604

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.134518

Access Statistics for this article

Energy is currently edited by Henrik Lund and Mark J. Kaiser

More articles in Energy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().