Indirect economic benefits of energy consumption changes under China's carbon neutrality goal

Chengfang Huang, Jinjun Guo, Zhengtao Zhang, Ning Li, Anfeng Zhu, Yuan Liu, Xi Chen and Benbo Sun

Energy, 2025, vol. 317, issue C

Abstract: Mitigation measures aimed at achieving carbon neutrality can lead to significant economic benefits by reducing the negative impact of climate warming. But the economic benefits of energy-related emission reduction actions under China's carbon neutrality goal are still unclear. Our study establishes an Adaptive Multi-Regional Input-Output model considering industrial linkage effects from energy consumption perspective, simulates the indirect economic benefits (IEB) through scenario analysis with 2017 as the base year. The results show that: (1) In the trajectory towards China's carbon neutrality, energy consumption changes will engender IEB, and peaking around 2040 at approximately 5.5 % of the GDP2017. (2) IEB is higher in the relatively less developed northwest regions, in Qinghai and Xinjiang, it will account for 13.0 % and 15.7 % of provincial GDP2017 by 2030. (3) Sectoral sensitivity of IEB is evident, with energy sector is the most sensitive, contributing over 60 % on average, particularly in the northwest and southwest regions; and the higher sensitivity of agriculture and industry is predominantly found in the central region. Therefore, considering the economic impacts of inter-provincial and inter-sectoral industrial linkages is crucial for scientifically guiding region-specific emission reduction actions, which can effectively facilitate the maximization of regional economic benefits under the carbon neutrality goal.

Keywords: China's carbon neutrality goal; Energy consumption; Indirect economic benefits; Input-output model; Scenario analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:317:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225003342

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.134692

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