Assessment of decarbonization pathway for Chinese road transport sector based on transportation-energy integration systems framework

Tianyi Wan, Hao Fu, Xiaoshan Li, Fan Wu, Cong Luo and Liqi Zhang

Energy, 2025, vol. 317, issue C

Abstract: The road transport sector becomes the most difficult sector to fully decarbonize due to its heavy reliance on oil. It is not clear how to affordably achieve low-carbon transition in China yet. In order to identify the most optimal pathway for emission reduction, a transportation-energy integration systems framework was established to analyze CO2 emission reduction potential and cost-benefit. The results of the case study demonstrate that the main source of carbon emissions are heavy freight truck and light passenger vehicles which accounting for 71.7 % of the total. Implementation of vehicle carbon capture technology and electrification transition can reduce 39.5 % CO2 emissions by 2050. However, rapid electrification of transport has led to a sectoral shift rather than an effective reduction in CO2 emissions. The Avoid-Shift-Improve strategy which exhibits good synergy in technology and policy represents a comprehensive approach to overcome this problem. To achieve the carbon neutrality in road transport of China, the most cost-benefit order of implementation from the beginning to the end are demand-side management, improving the efficiency of internal combustion engines, deployment of carbon capture technology and electrification transition.

Keywords: Road transport; Decarbonization strategy; Cost-benefit analysis; Transportation-energy integration systems framework (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:317:y:2025:i:c:s036054422500369x

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.134727

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