Tracing thermal power emissions footprint in a global value chains perspective

Haolun An, Shimei Wu, Ruoyu Chu, Yanyang Qu, Xiandong Zhu and Bohao Zhang

Energy, 2025, vol. 318, issue C

Abstract: The power sector has become one of the biggest challenges to global climate mitigation through fuel-based generation. Using a database of 35,000 thermal-power plants worldwide, this study measures thermal-power-emissions footprint through global value chains (GVCs) analysis and explores drivers of footprint change by LMDI. The main findings show that international trade induces over 20 % of global thermal-power-emissions and biomass-power-emissions grows by almost 20 % p.a., while other fuel-power-emissions grows by less than 2.5 % p.a. Furthermore, the results of thermal-power-emissions considered on the producer and consumer side vary considerably, and forced by further consumption demand growth in high-income economies, low and middle-income economies remain in negative thermal-power-emissions transfer in 2019, deteriorating further in complex GVCs and traditional trade. Per capita demand and population growth account for most thermal-power-emissions growth. Reducing effects are strongest in extreme event years when power demand falls, followed by rising clean-power shares and unit generation costs. In addition, biomass-power with weak abatement constraints contributes up to a quarter of global thermal-power-emissions growth, or 7 % of global carbon emissions growth. Based on these findings, recommendations such as establishing eco-cooperation for low-carbon generation techs and improving cross-border access to clean-power are proposed to achieve a globally efficient and practical effect of thermal-power mitigation.

Keywords: Power sector; Generation transition; Global value chains (GVCs); Multi-regional input-output model (MRIO); Logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:318:y:2025:i:c:s0360544224038416

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.134063

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