Reevaluating the impact of new energy vehicles: A vehicle substitution pattern analysis on comprehensive emission reduction effects

Xiao Zheng, Wenbo Li, Ke Cui, Xiu Cheng and Jiaxin Huang

Energy, 2025, vol. 318, issue C

Abstract: The rising prevalence of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reflects their potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which is a critical global issue. This study investigates the emission reductions by private NEVs, focusing on their relationship to the vehicles they replace. Based on a discrete choice experiment in Jiangsu, China, vehicles replaced by private NEVs are found to be relatively fuel-efficient. Were private NEVs not an option, approximately 20 % of their owners would adopt alternative transportation modes like subways, buses, and taxis. Among those who would still opt for private vehicles, the proportions using internal combustion engine vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, and low-speed electric vehicles are predicted to be 38 %, 47.3 %, and 14.7 %, respectively. Additionally, the greenhouse gas emission reduction achieved by NEVs in Jiangsu Province is estimated based on the year 2022 by examining vehicle substitution patterns. The findings suggest that neglecting the fuel type of replaced vehicles leads to a marked overestimation of NEV benefits in terms of emission reduction.

Keywords: New energy vehicle; Emissions reduction; Discrete choice model; Vehicle substitution pattern (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:318:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225004761

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.134834

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