Heterogeneity grey model and its prediction of energy consumption under the shared socioeconomic pathways

Kai Zhao and Lifeng Wu

Energy, 2025, vol. 319, issue C

Abstract: The same accumulation operators limit the capacity of grey prediction algorithm in unsmoothed time series. Based on the principle of heterogeneity, a grey model can be affected by changes in multiple different accumulation operators. Therefore, the study proposed a grey model with heterogeneity accumulation operators to predict the future energy consumption in Chinese provinces under the shared socioeconomic pathways. The future energy consumptions of China’s 30 provinces are predicted by the proposed novel model under the shared socioeconomic pathways. The predicted results show that the regional competition path of the shared socioeconomic pathway three is the optimal development path for carbon peak areas with high and low maturity from 2022 to 2030. Most provinces in the middle maturity region will maintain the optimal development path of the shared socioeconomic pathway five, which is mainly based on fossil fuels. To ensure the achievement of the carbon peak goal of low energy consumption, it is recommended that the development path of provinces in middle maturity regions should transition from the shared socioeconomic pathway five to the three before 2030. The predicted results of the novel model can provide reference for relevant government departments to help formulate energy policies and carbon peak targets.

Keywords: Grey system theory; Heterogeneity accumulation; Energy consumption; Shared socioeconomic pathways (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:319:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225004931

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.134851

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