Sustainable lithium supply for electric vehicle development in China towards carbon neutrality

Qi Zhang, Zhenyue Huang, Boyu Liu and Tian Ma

Energy, 2025, vol. 320, issue C

Abstract: Global carbon neutrality efforts have spurred the electric vehicle (EV) boom, increasing the demand for lithium. As the global leader in EV adoption and the largest consumer of lithium, China faces a severe lithium shortage, characterized by high import dependence. Therefore, a simulation framework combining Material Flow Analysis (MFA) and nonlinear optimization was developed to assess sustainable lithium supply for EV in China. The obtained results show that: i) By 2050, annual EV sales are projected to reach 35.2 million, 18 times of the 2020 level. During 2024 to 2050, the maximum difference in cumulative lithium demand across different scenarios for EV market diffusion and battery market structure reaches 8.8 and 23.2 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (Mt LCE), respectively. ii) Overall import dependence is expected to gradually decline from 75.7% in 2024 to an average of 16.3% by 2050 across various scenarios, primarily owing to the lithium recycling increase. Lithium shortages will happen between 2030 and 2040, with the most severe annual shortage reaching 46.9% of demand under trade protectionism scenarios. iii) Eliminating potential lithium shortages in China will depend on the implementation of countermeasures, such as production incentives, recycling promotion, adoption of alternatives, and resource conservations.

Keywords: Electric vehicles; Lithium supply; Scenario analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:320:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225008850

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.135243

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