The development pathway for hydrogen fuel cell heavy duty trucks in China: An energy-environment-economy life cycle assessment approach

Mei-Hui Tian, Yu-Jie Hu, Chengjiang Li, Yao Tao and Honglei Wang

Energy, 2025, vol. 322, issue C

Abstract: Heavy-duty trucks (HDTs), heavily reliant on diesel fuel, pose significant challenges to transportation decarbonization. However, hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty trucks (HFC-HDTs) offer potential for emission reduction. This study develops an energy-environment-economy (3E) analysis framework based on life cycle assessment (LCA) and proposes a bottom-up optimization model. This paper assessed carbon emissions, energy consumption, costs, and hydrogen fuel consumption structures across five scenarios, and proposed a development pathway for China's HDT sector. The findings show that achieving a 100 % share of HFC-HDT could reduce energy consumption by 116 Mtce across all regions, with carbon emissions peaking between 68.7 and 247 Mtce by 2030. Economic analysis shows that when the hydrogen vehicle alternative rate surpasses 36 %, its economic benefits outweigh those of diesel fuel efficiency improvements. East China is projected to have the highest cumulative hydrogen demand, reaching 414 MT. North, Central, East, and South China should focus on improving diesel truck efficiency by 2035 to control costs and emissions. After 2040, the Southwest, Northeast, and Northwest regions should leverage abundant green hydrogen resources to transition toward a high share of HFC-HDTs gradually. This study recommends phased emission reduction based on regional resource endowments, combining diesel truck efficiency upgrades with HFC-HDT deployment.

Keywords: LCA; Energy-environment-economy (3E); Hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty trucks; Development pathway (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:322:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225014392

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.135797

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