Factors influencing carbon emissions and low-carbon paths in China's transportation industry

Xinran Gao, Shuai Shao, Qiufeng Gao, Yun Zhang, Xiaomeng Wang and Yue Wang

Energy, 2025, vol. 323, issue C

Abstract: Effectively reducing transportation carbon emissions (TCE) is necessary to achieve the carbon peaking and neutral goals. However, TCE levels vary significantly across regions. This study built a factor decomposition model to identify the key factors influencing TCE in different regions, combined with machine learning to explore the optimal low-carbon paths. The results show that (1) the regional distribution pattern of TCE is similar to the regional economic development level; (2) the key factors are heterogeneous across regions, but the energy intensity, the urban public transportation operation effect, and the urbanization effect are the key influencing factors for most regions; (3) the TCE could be reduced when optimizing the energy and transportation industry effects with economic development. Based on these results, we provided the policies for establishing regional emission reduction targets, optimizing the transport and energy structures, transforming the mode of economic development and improving management services.

Keywords: Transportation carbon emissions; Regional variation; Influencing factors; Low-carbon paths; LMDI; Machine learning (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:323:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225014203

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.135778

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