Techno-economic implications and cost of forecasting errors in solar PV power production using optimized deep learning models

Sameer Al-Dahidi, Mohammad Alrbai, Bilal Rinchi, Hussein Alahmer, Loiy Al-Ghussain, Hassan S. Hayajneh and Ali Alahmer

Energy, 2025, vol. 323, issue C

Abstract: Accurate solar Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is important for enhancing both the performance and economic feasibility of PV systems. This study evaluates several deep learning models, including Dense Neural Networks (DNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), and a hybrid LSTM-CNN model, for predicting PV power production one day in advance. Prior to optimization, the models exhibited relatively high errors, with the best model (DNN) achieving a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 31.13 kW and a coefficient of determination (R2) of 62.15 %. After employing Bayesian optimization, the LSTM-CNN model demonstrated the best performance, with the RMSE reduced to 9.79 kW and R2 improved to 97.62 %, showcasing significant enhancement in predictive accuracy. The economic evaluation considered three cases: rewards for underestimation (0.08 USD/kWh), no rewards, and penalties for both over- and underestimation (120 % of the utility tariff). In the rewards scenario, the LSTM-CNN model reduced the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) by 4 %, while in the penalty scenario, a backup diesel generator would have increased the LCOE by 49 %. Additionally, the LSTM-CNN model minimized financial losses, achieving the lowest penalties and maximizing net cash flow compared to other models, demonstrating its overall technical and economic superiority.

Keywords: Photovoltaic power forecast; Deep learning; Techno-economic evaluation; Forecasting accuracy; Imbalance rewards and penalties; Levelized cost of electricity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:323:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225015191

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.135877

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