Accelerating residential decarbonisation: How stakeholder decision-making and socio-economic dynamics affect multi-decadal district heating network expansion

Thomas Cowley, Timothy Hutty, Joseph Hammond and Solomon Brown

Energy, 2025, vol. 326, issue C

Abstract: District heating networks (DHNs) are essential for decarbonising urban heating but face adoption barriers due to stakeholder complexities, infrastructure legacies, and consumer resistance. Existing models overlook the dynamic, iterative nature of infrastructure development and multi-stakeholder interactions. To address these limitations, this study develops an agent-based model (ABM) that continuously simulates DHN adoption and expansion. Unlike discrete optimisation approaches, this integrates evolving household decision-making, project developer strategies, and dynamic market conditions. Socio-economic factors, spatial dynamics, and temporal evolution are incorporated to provide a comprehensive understanding of DHN diffusion. The model projects that adoption in the studied urban area could reach 30.4% ± 2% of households by 2050. While this projection exceeds the UK's national target of 20% for DHN adoption, it highlights the significant potential to contribute to national decarbonisation goals. Heating bill savings range from 41.9% to 56.3%, while CO2 emissions are reduced by 24.3% compared to existing gas heated systems. Through the quantification of temporal dynamics and multi-stakeholder interactions, this study offers insights for urban energy transition strategies. These findings can inform policies that accelerate DHN adoption, mitigate risks associated with large-scale infrastructure investments, and contribute to sustainable urban heating strategies aligned with international climate goals.

Keywords: District heat networks; Agent-based modelling; Urban energy transition; Socio-economic dynamics; Infrastructure expansion (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:326:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225019462

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.136304

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