Study on short-term natural gas system resilience under import shortage shocks

Mei Song, Zisha Wang, Lixun Chi, Rui Wang and Mingming Zhu

Energy, 2025, vol. 328, issue C

Abstract: Natural gas has low-carbon attributes and plays an important role in China’s energy security as a transitional energy source. However, a series of problems, such as high external dependence, seriously threaten China’s natural gas supply security. This study constructs a multi-scenario system dynamics model from a dynamic perspective, analyzes the changes in the resilience of the natural gas system under 39%, 56%, and 100% disruptions in liquefied natural gas imports, compares the improvement effects of different emergency measures, and proposes a path to enhance the resilience of China’s natural gas system. The research conclusions are: China’s natural gas system can recover from only a 39% shortage. The improvement effect of dual measures on the natural gas system is significantly better than that of single measures, in the order of “dual measures > demand compression only > emergency supply only.” An increase in the capacity of liquefied natural gas and underground gas storage should take into account their tank and reserve capacity. A simultaneous increase in liquefied natural gas tank capacity and emergency gasification capability is key to improving China’s gas system resilience under a scenario of extreme shortage.

Keywords: Natural gas import shortages; Short-term natural gas system; Resilience; Heating period and non-heating period; System dynamics model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:328:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225022856

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.136643

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