Ranking and selection of power expansion alternatives for multiple objectives under uncertainty

G. Heinrich, L. Basson, B. Cohen, M. Howells and J. Petrie

Energy, 2007, vol. 32, issue 12, 2350-2369

Abstract: Strategic planning in the electricity supply industry is a complex task due to the multiple and often conflicting objectives of the decision makers, as well as the inherent technical and valuation uncertainties involved. As such, a transparent decision support framework is needed, for guiding information management throughout the decision process, in a way which shapes decision outcomes, and enables confident choices to be made. This paper outlines a methodology for the ranking of power expansion alternatives given multiple objectives and uncertainty, and demonstrates this using the South African electricity supply industry. This methodology uses a value function MCDA approach that is augmented with scenario analysis to yield information relating to both the relative performance and credibility of power expansion alternatives. A portfolio of preferred alternatives is then identified based on performance and confidence criteria. Finally a more detailed analysis of the reduced solution set examines short-term technology investment details alongside attribute performance information, so as to gain insight into the decision problem and relate it back to real life actions.

Keywords: Electricity planning; Multiple criteria decision analysis; Value function; Uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (23)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:32:y:2007:i:12:p:2350-2369

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2007.06.001

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