Navigating copper demand-supply dynamics for China's energy transition: Pathways to sustainable supply

Binbin Li, Liang Wang, Ling Zhang, Huijun Wu and Zengwei Yuan

Energy, 2025, vol. 330, issue C

Abstract: It remains uncertain whether and how copper supply can meet the rising demand in the energy transition of China. This study forecasts China's copper metabolism during 2022–2060, with particular attention on transport and power sectors as key energy transition subsystems. Sustainable supply pathways are then explored. The findings indicate that copper demand is projected to increase from 14.3 Mt to 21.9–32.0 Mt in 2060. The combined share of the transport and power sectors is expected to account for 67.3 %–77.5 % of total copper demand and 62.9 %–73.8 % of total scrap, highlighting their pivotal role in reshaping copper usage and recycling efforts. Secondary copper is anticipated to become the primary supply source by as early as 2045. However, under current recycling rates and trade volumes, there would be a cumulative demand-supply gap of 75.9–314.3 Mt. To close this gap, the recycling rate must increase to 90 %. Developing substitution for copper is also promising.

Keywords: Copper; Energy transition; Demand-supply balance; Recycling; Material flow analysis (MFA) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:330:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225025551

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.136913

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