A global model for residential energy use: Uncertainty in calibration to regional data

Bas van Ruijven, Bert de Vries, Detlef P. van Vuuren and Jeroen P. van der Sluijs

Energy, 2010, vol. 35, issue 1, 269-282

Abstract: Uncertainties in energy demand modelling allow for the development of different models, but also leave room for different calibrations of a single model. We apply an automated model calibration procedure to analyse calibration uncertainty of residential sector energy use modelling in the TIMER 2.0 global energy model. This model simulates energy use on the basis of changes in useful energy intensity, technology development (AEEI) and price responses (PIEEI). We find that different implementations of these factors yield behavioural model results. Model calibration uncertainty is identified as influential source for variation in future projections: amounting 30% to 100% around the best estimate. Energy modellers should systematically account for this and communicate calibration uncertainty ranges.

Keywords: Uncertainty; Model calibration; Residential energy use (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (23)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:35:y:2010:i:1:p:269-282

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2009.09.019

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