Estimating the option value of a non-firm electricity tariff
S. Price and
Energy, 2010, vol. 35, issue 4, 1609-1614
We estimate the option value of a non-firm electricity tariff commonly used by a local distribution company (LDC) in its electricity demand response program. This option value captures the benefit that a LDC enjoys from not serving an end-use load during high-price hours in a wholesale electricity market. It is conservative in that it does not include the cost savings in meeting the LDC's resource adequacy requirement or deferring transmission and distribution (T&D) investments necessary for delivering reliable service. Illustrated by a Northern California example, our two-pronged approach entails (a) a set of summer monthly market price regressions to forecast daily spot price distributions that incorporate uncertainty in natural gas price and weather; and (b) a simulation exercise to quantify the tariff's value under a specific design. The results indicate that a non-firm service tariff can have varying option value estimates that are highly sensitive to the tariff's design, and that an incentive payment based on the option value alone is likely insufficient to attract customer participation in a non-firm service program.
Keywords: Demand response; Electricity economics; Option valuation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:35:y:2010:i:4:p:1609-1614
Access Statistics for this article
Energy is currently edited by Henrik Lund and Mark J. Kaiser
More articles in Energy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dana Niculescu ().